
Volatility is the word you use to describe the up and down of Jimmy, Chase, Ryan and the gang on the exchange this year. From confidence to stubborness to all out doubt, the Phils along with many other teams have tapped every possible human emotion within traders on our site.
If you haven't been keeping up, it seems like the whole NL East has caught the losing bug and only the Mets want to win the division.
The Mets have won 4 straight and are 1 game up on the Phillies and 2.5 on the Marlins. Philly lost 4 straight. Florida 2 straight. Atlanta 4 straight. Washington 7 straight.
Now, I'm not going to go out on a limb and say invest in the Phillies because that wouldn't be the smartest thing to do at this point. Why? They play the Dodgers 4x, Mets 5x, Cubs 4x, Marlins 6x, and the Brewers 3x in their last 37 games. Do I think they will win the division? I actually do. And in terms of value and profit potential, they look real good right now at $140.92 for a Cat A and $30.70 for a Cat E. But their schedule as noted before can scare off anyone. But sometimes you have to take risks right?
The Phils can down your mood, but they can also make you as happy as ever when you see those green plus signs in your portfolio. Typical Philly team if you ask me. They play with your emotions.
Below is a chart of Cat E's for the Phillies from the beginning of May until now.
Let's look at some Category E's from the 7th of May to the 3rd of this month:


As you can see:
May 7th - The Phillies were 19-14 and barely above .500 on May 7th. Their price: 40.00.
May 25th - They dipped to 34.00 and were 28-24. That's an extra 2 loss difference.
At this point, fans really didn't know what to make of the Phillies, but traders were holding and some even bought at lower prices. Now lets move onto June when the action begins.
- After May 25th, the Phillies won their next 11 of 13 thru June 9th. Their stock price rose to 56.00. A 22.00 increase since Memorial Day. Their stock kept rising thru series' with LAA, STL, and Bos in which they struggled which was against the current trends. It could've been other market related factors that contributed to their rise or their impending soft schedule with Oakland, Texas, and Atlanta on the horizon that kept them up there. Whatever it may have been, by June 22nd the Phillies were at 76.00. Another 20.00 increase in a matter of weeks.
- Let's fast forward to a week and a half later. By June 31st, the Phillies dropped 4 of their last 6 since the 22nd. They dropped back down to 56.00. A 20.00 decrease. That's where the dot is in the middle if you can see it.
- Then July comes and the Phillies start the month 4-0 before a series against the Mets where they could've basically put them away for good for the rest of the season. At the end of July 5th, the Phils finished at 73.00. They went up 17.00 in a matter of days. After the Mets series, which the Mets won 3-1, the Phils dropped 10.00 to 63.00. After that, the Phillies managed to drop to 56.00 right at the AS break. The Phillies then came back from the break and went 4-5 thru the 27th of July and confidence in them began to wane dropping them to 36.00. Their lowest price point since late May.
Now the stretch run is here and the Phillies are down to 30.00. They creeped up above 50 at the beginning of August, but are now back down and being behind the Mets in the division is probably one of the main factors. They are also 3-7 in their last 10 games.
So with the pending difficult schedule, are the Phillies a value or something you stay away from? This might be one of the toughest teams to press "place order" on the site for. I think the tough schedule and the closeness of the division race will keep traders at bay until the last week of the season when everything begins to sort itself out. Maybe even the last day. We are talking about the NL East here. Remember what happened to the Mets in September last year. Anything can happen. Anything...
August 15th, 2008
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